In July 2026, the benchmark price for a single-family home in the Victoria Core dropped 2.8 percent year over year to $1,311,000. On the Saanich Peninsula, it slipped 1.1 percent to $1,275,100. Across Greater Victoria as a whole, the number was down 1.6 percent to $1,170,200. In the Westshore, which includes Colwood, the same benchmark fell just 0.3 percent, from $1,037,500 to $1,034,200.
That's not a rounding error. It's the smallest decline in the region, in the one submarket that also happens to be in the middle of the largest construction boom in Greater Victoria. More new homes should mean more competition among sellers and softer prices, not the opposite. Something else is holding the floor up in Colwood, and it isn't the ocean views.
The Numbers Don't Match The Obvious Story
Here's what the Victoria Real Estate Board's July 2026 statistics package actually shows, region by region, for single-family homes and condos.
| Region | SFH Benchmark (Jul 2026) | YoY Change | Condo Benchmark (Jul 2026) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria Core | $1,311,000 | -2.8% | $548,600 | -2.2% |
| Westshore | $1,034,200 | -0.3% | $493,600 | -1.8% |
| Peninsula | $1,275,100 | -1.1% | $618,900 | +1.2% |
| Greater Victoria | $1,170,200 | -1.6% | $544,400 | -2.1% |
Regionwide, 673 properties sold in July, one percent fewer than the same month last year, while active listings climbed to 3,847, up nearly four percent year over year. VREB Chair Fergus Kyne summed up the mood after the numbers came out: "We ended the month above the five-year average for number of sales in a July." Buyers have room to be patient. Sellers everywhere are competing against more choice than they've had in years.
Except in Colwood, prices aren't behaving like there's more choice. They're behaving like there's a buyer who has to be there.
Why Everyone Assumes It's Royal Bay
The easy explanation is Royal Bay. It's not a bad guess. Path Developments, formerly GableCraft Homes, has built more than 500 single-family homes there since the project began, part of a master-planned community that turned a former sand and gravel pit into a waterfront neighborhood with a retail village at its center. A few blocks away, Seacliff Properties and Reliance Properties are pouring $1.2 billion into The Beachlands, with the first multi-family buildings slated to open in summer 2026. The Royal BC Museum is building a $270 million collections and research facility on an eight-acre parcel there, also targeted for completion this summer.
That's an extraordinary amount of new supply landing in one municipality at once. In a normal market, this is the textbook setup for softening prices: builders competing for buyers, inventory stacking up, sellers of resale homes forced to match new-construction pricing to stay competitive. It's exactly what's happening to condos in the Victoria Core, where 209 units sold in July against a wave of new listings.
But Colwood's benchmark isn't cracking under that pressure. If Royal Bay's construction boom were the whole story, you'd expect Westshore prices to be falling faster than the Core's, not slower. Something is absorbing that supply as fast as it appears.
The Paycheck That Doesn't Care Where You Live
That something sits four kilometers from downtown Victoria: CFB Esquimalt. It's sometimes called the region's 14th municipality, and the description isn't far off. The base spans 1,500 buildings across 23 sites with a replacement value of $2 billion, and it's the third largest employer in Greater Victoria, contributing close to $600 million into the local economy every year.
A meaningful share of that economic weight lands specifically in Colwood, at Belmont Park, a Department of National Defence neighborhood that houses military families and is home to École John Stubbs Memorial School. Belmont Park is one of roughly 709 Residential Housing Units the Canadian Forces Housing Agency operates within 25 kilometers of the base.
Here's the part that actually explains the price floor. Canadian Armed Forces members posted to high-cost regions like Esquimalt receive a Post Living Differential Allowance, and they receive it whether they choose to live in agency housing or buy or rent on the civilian market. The allowance follows the person, not the address. That single design choice means a posting to CFB Esquimalt generates housing purchasing power that flows into Colwood's civilian market on a schedule set by military rotations, not by mortgage rates, buyer confidence, or how many new units GableCraft or Path Developments bring online in a given quarter.
The Government Is Still Building, Too
If a steady stream of relocating families with a housing allowance were the only factor, you might expect it to matter less as CFHA's own inventory of Residential Housing Units grows. It's doing the opposite: expanding right alongside the private construction boom, not instead of it.
A few concrete data points from the past year:
- A privately developed, four-storey, 37-unit apartment complex near the base, acquired for $23.3 million, began housing CAF members in January 2026. Officials marked the deal with a ribbon-cutting attended by Secretary of State Stephanie McLean, on behalf of Minister of National Defence David J. McGuinty.
- CFHA is pursuing further private-sector partnerships as part of a plan to add several hundred residential housing units by the mid-2030s.
- Design work is underway at CFB Esquimalt on a 480-room accommodations facility for junior non-commissioned members, first announced in August 2024.
- At Belmont Park itself, CFHA received environmental clearance in April 2026 to fully recapitalize five existing single-detached homes, a project that includes removing the entire second storey and rebuilding it along with new siding, windows, plumbing, electrical, and a new perimeter drain system.
None of this is happening because the federal government is betting on Colwood's lifestyle appeal. It's happening because a posting to CFB Esquimalt is not optional for the people it's assigned to, and someone has to house them. That demand doesn't wait for a soft market to correct itself, and it doesn't evaporate when regional inventory climbs.
What This Means If You're Comparing Neighborhoods
If you're weighing Colwood against the Core, the Peninsula, or Langford right now, the practical takeaway isn't that Colwood is immune to a downturn. Its condo benchmark still slipped 1.8 percent, in line with the rest of the region. What's different is the depth of the floor under single-family resale values in neighborhoods within a reasonable commute of the base, places like Hatley Park, Latoria, Colwood Corners, and Triangle Mountain.
Belmont Park itself isn't part of that calculation directly. It's Department of National Defence land, not open-market housing, so its homes never come up for private sale. What matters for a buyer or seller is the ripple effect: every family who cycles through a posting and doesn't get a Belmont Park unit, or prefers to buy rather than wait on a CFHA list, becomes a participant in the surrounding civilian market instead.
For a seller in Colwood right now, that means resale demand has a source of support that a seller in the Core or on the Peninsula doesn't have to the same degree. For a buyer, it's worth understanding that some of what looks like Colwood's price stability is really about geography relative to a specific employer, not a universal statement about which Greater Victoria neighborhood is the better long-term bet.
A Few Questions Worth Asking Before You Decide
Does this affect every Colwood neighborhood equally? No. The effect is strongest in areas within an easy commute of CFB Esquimalt. Neighborhoods further into Royal Bay and along the waterfront are shaped more by the pace of new construction there than by proximity to the base.
Can civilians buy into Belmont Park? No. Belmont Park is Department of National Defence property managed by the Canadian Forces Housing Agency for military families. It never enters the open resale market, so it doesn't compete directly with civilian listings, it just absorbs demand that would otherwise land there.
Should I expect this floor to hold if defense spending changes? The Post Living Differential Allowance and CFHA's current expansion plans, including the housing unit additions targeted through the mid-2030s, are the best public indicators available right now. Any material shift in federal housing investment near the base would be the thing to watch, and it would show up first in CFHA's own project announcements before it showed up in resale prices.
If you're trying to figure out what a specific Colwood address is actually worth against this backdrop, or how it compares to a similar home in the Core or on the Peninsula, that's the kind of question that benefits from someone who tracks both the VREB numbers and what's happening on the ground. Coastal Living Collective works across these micro-markets every week. What's Your Property Worth?
